Total construction spending for the next five years in both the private and public sectors could reach as high as HK$870 billion, according new estimates from the Construction Industry Council.
The spending encompasses civil works, building works, repair, maintenance, alteration and additional works as well as electrical and mechanical works in both the public and private sectors, the council said in its brand new publication, the Construction Expenditure Forecast.
Averaged out over five years, annual spending on construction would be about HK$174 billion at September 2012 prices and that is just for the upper range forecast.
The lower range forecast is HK$710 billion or HK$142 billion per year.
By way of comparison, according to the publication’s historical figures, total construction expenditure over the past 10 years at September 2012 prices, was about HK$1,287 billion or about HK$128.7 billion per year.
The forecast will be released during the first quarter of each year for the next 10 financial years and there will be a half yearly review.
Broken down by sector, total spending over five years for public works is HK$425 billion for the upper range while the lower range is HK$315 billion.
For the private sector, total spending is HK$445 billon for the upper range and HK$395 billion for the lower range.
The publication also gives a forecast for public sector spending from 2018 to 2023.
Public sector works includes work carried out by government departments such as Civil Engineering and Development Department, the Housing Authority, sub-vented projects such as schools, and infrastructure works of the Airport Authority and MTRC (0066).
Private sector works include all private construction work as well as residential developments by the Urban Renewal Authority, the MTRC, Housing Society and building activities by utility companies.
“In response to industry’s needs, the CIC formed a Focus Group on Projected Construction Expenditure in August 2011 with the goal of forecasting construction expenditure in Hong Kong for the coming 10 years,” the CIC said on its website.
The focus group with quantity surveying firm Rider Levett Bucknell acting as chairman, included representatives from government, trade organisations such as the Hong Kong Construction Association and professional organisations such as the Hong Kong Institution of Engineers and Hong Kong Institute of Surveyors.
Other government linked organisations such as the Airport Authority, Housing Authority and MTRC and property surveyors such as Jones Lang LaSalle also assisted in compiling the forecast.